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NCB Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index - April 1st 2004
First indication of Irish business conditions each month

"The recovery in Irish manufacturing continues to gather pace, benefiting from greater buoyancy in both domestic and external demand. The return to growth in employment is also becoming more established."  Dermot O’Brien – Chief Economist at NCB

Purchasing managers indicated a further marked improvement in Irish manufacturing business conditions in March, with the rate of improvement picking up slightly compared to the previous month. The seasonally adjusted NCB Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – an indicator designed to provide a single-figure measure of the economic health of the manufacturing industry – rose to 54.4, up from 53.7 in February, remaining above the critical 50.0 no-change mark for the seventh successive month.

Output and demand
The latest improvement in business conditions was again underpinned by buoyant growth of incoming new orders, which rose for the seventh month running in March. Furthermore, the rate of increase in new business continued to gather pace, as manufacturers benefited from stronger global economic conditions. When considered separately, the export component of new orders showed a solid rise in sales to international clients – the fifth consecutive monthly increase. The rate of growth of new export orders was also marginally faster than a month earlier, with panel firms reporting higher sales in particular to clients in Asia and North America.

Robust growth of incoming new orders led to production volumes being revised upwards for the seventh month in a row in March. The rate of expansion of output eased slightly compared to a month earlier, but nevertheless remained marked.

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Input and output prices
Shortages of certain raw materials, in particular metals, contributed to a substantial lengthening of average lead-times in March. This again enabled suppliers to charge a premium for those goods in strong demand. As a result, average input prices again rose sharply, with the rate of input cost inflation picking up compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, average prices charged for manufactured products rose only marginally, as intense competition restricted the extent to which these costs could be passed directly on to clients.

Stocks
In order to satisfy rising production requirements, the volume of inputs purchased by manufacturers rose at a sharper rate in March than February. However, despite a marked increase in purchasing activity, inventories of purchases rose only marginally during the month, as the majority of panel firms reported buying goods on a just-in-time basis.

Employment
Increased workloads stimulated a marginal expansion of the manufacturing sector workforce for the second month running in March. Despite higher levels of employment, backlogs of work-inhand (but not yet completed) were found to have been unchanged in March, having previously declined in each month since data were first collected in September 2002.

  

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Disclaimer
The document is not intended to be and must not be construed as an offer to buy or sell stocks or shares. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed to third parties without permission.

Whilst every effort has been made in the preparation of this report to ensure accuracy of the statistical and other contents, the publishers and data suppliers cannot accept any liability in respect of errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or omissions.

NCB
The NCB Group is a leading financial services company based in Dublin with a wide domestic and international client base. Its main activities are in Stockbroking (private client and institutional), Bonds, Moneybroking, Corporate Finance, Venture Capital Investment and International Funds Listing.

NTC Research
NTC is one of the world’s largest specialist providers of business research and information, operating business surveys on behalf of blue chip clients. Current research includes continuous surveys providing original data on economic conditions in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Austria, Ireland, Greece, Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic Hong Kong and Japan. NTC surveys are widely used by governments, businesses and the financial markets.

NTC, Farm Road, Henley-on-Thames, Oxon, RG9 1EJ. Tel: +44 1491 418700. Fax:+44 1491 571188. www.ntc-research.com

    
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