Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index -February 2005

From: Owen O Neill - A.P.S
Association of Purchasing & Supply
www.irishpurchasing.com


NCB Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing  Index - February 1st 2005
First indication of Irish business conditions each month


Expansion of Irish manufacturing economy continued in January. Rate of growth in new orders accelerated.

"While the January PMI shows a broad stabilisation in the overall pace of activity growth in manufacturing, a number of its components suggest a more vigorous underlying picture. Growth in output and new orders speeded up in January, with export orders accelerating sharply, while the reading on employment was close to the best seen in the past four years."
Dermot O’Brien – Chief Economist at NCB

The latest NCB survey indicated that operating conditions in the Irish manufacturing sector had continued to improve in January. The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) – an indicator designed to provide a single-figure measure of the economic health of the manufacturing industry – posted 52.9, to suggest a similar rate of improvement to that recorded in December. The PMI has now signalled expansion of the sector for seventeen consecutive months.

Output and demand
Underpinning the latest improvement in operating conditions was a further increase in the volume of new orders placed with Irish manufacturers. Moreover, the already solid rate of growth in new business accelerated slightly from one month earlier. Panellists reported that increased demand included greater spending amongst existing clients together with new work from fresh sources. Survey data showed that new export orders had risen for a third successive month – and at the sharpest pace since August 2004.

The continued upturn in new business prompted Irish manufacturers to further increase production at their units in January. In addition, the rate of output growth was slightly sharper than that recorded in the previous month. Despite their need to satisfy a greater volume of new orders, manufacturers were able to effect a further modest reduction in backlogs of work outstanding.

Input and output prices

Irish manufacturers pointed to a further strong increase in average input costs in January, which they linked to the rising price of a range of raw materials (steel and plastic products in particular). However, the rate of input price inflation eased for the third month in a row, and considerably from December. Output prices continued to increase, but at a weaker rate than average input costs. A number of firms reported that strong competition had limited the extent to which they could raise selling prices.

Purchasing
A rise in purchasing activity was recorded in January for the sixteenth month running, and at a similar solid rate as December. Survey firms commented that input buying was increased to meet growing production requirements. However, the rise in purchasing was insufficient to prevent a reduction in stocks of purchases, which fell modestly. Stocks of finished goods declined at a similar rate.

Employment
Levels of employment at Irish manufacturing firms rose again in January. Furthermore, the rate of job creation was the sharpest for six months. Panel firms reported that the recruitment of additional workers reflected not only the need to deal with further expansion of new orders, but also expectations of growth in demand through 2005.

 

 



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